Published: 14 December, 2010, 03:15
Elections on the two banks of Dniester showed that big business has come to powerSvetlana Gamova
In Transdniester, a new Supreme Council has been elected and will soon begin its work – unlike Moldova’s parliament, which is still unable to form a ruling alliance and is risking finding itself on the brink of another dissolution. The only thing that unites the elections on the two banks of Dniester is the coming to power of big business representatives in both the legitimate Moldova and the unrecognized Transdniester.
The acting president of Moldova, Mihai Ghimpu, argues that the Moldovan people will be given a gift before the New Year – a new ruling alliance. Meanwhile, experts in Chisinau are predicting the alliance to be short-lived, and for the voters, another early election in the next year.
Recall that Moldova has had three parliamentary elections in the last two years. But each time the parliament failed to elect a president (direct presidential elections have been abolished in the republic) and was dissolved by the temporary head of state. After the November 28 election, Communists have the biggest faction in the Legislative Assembly with 42 of the 101 seats. The Liberal Democrats came in second place with 32 seats. Fifteen seats went to the Democrats and 12 to the Liberals. Because not one of the parliamentary parties is able to create a parliamentary majority, they are all holding intense negotiations with each another.
Recently, the head of Russia’s presidential administration, Sergey Naryshkin, traveled to Chisinau, where he met with the leaders of the three winning parties (except for the head of the Liberal Democratic Party, Prime Minister Vladimir Filat). After this, the Moldovan capital began talking about the creation of a center-left alliance with the Communist and Democratic Parties. However, the honorary chairman of the Democratic Party, Dumitru Diacov, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG) that the Democrats are holding negotiations with all parties and are considering various proposals. Today, Moldova is guessing as to who – Communists or the Liberal Democrats – has a better chance to form a ruling alliance with the Democrats.
According to Arkady Barbarosh, director of the Chisinau-based Public Policy Institute, the most probable outcome is “an alliance without a president.” Communists are ready to vote for “an impolitic president,” but this option does not suit the Democratic Party leader, Marian Lupu – who is known to have his sights set on that position. On the other hand, if the center-left alliance is formed, then the Liberals and Liberal Democrats will not participate in the presidential election.
Meanwhile, contrary to today’s arguments, the Communists will not be unable to buy their votes, argues the political analyst.
“During the last election, the Communists had also argued that it will not take much for them to lure some of the right-wing representatives to their side, but they were unsuccessful, despite the fact that then they were only lacking one vote. And now, together with the Democrats, they lack four,” Barbarosh told NG.
If the Democrats decide to agree with the right-wingers, then the Communists will not support a presidential candidate from that alliance. In any case, notes the expert, the Democrats’ position will not so much be determined by Lupu as much as by the second name on the party’s list: Vladimir Plahotniuc.
During the last election, he financed the left and the right, and in the current election, became a sponsor of the Democratic Party. In Chisinau, he is talked about as a contender for the post of the head of government. And this fact could have an effect on the negotiations between the Democratic and Liberal Democratic Parties. The chairman of the latter, Vladimir Filat, would like to secure this position, especially because he enjoys considerable support from the European Union.
According to NG’s sources, his meetings with the leader of Transdniester, Igor Smirnov, during this fall’s soccer match at the Tiraspol stadium were organized by the EU special representative for Moldova, Kalman Mizsei.
“Football diplomacy” had unblocked relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol, political talks between which were broken two years ago. Progress in regard to Transdniester played to Filat’s advantage during the election campaign, and his young party, in comparison to others, came in the second place.
The Transdniester issue is also important for all other parties with the exception of the Liberal Party, whose leader, Mihai Ghimpu, at one time encouraged armed conflict on the Dniester, and everyone else promised voters an early reunification of the country within the borders of independent Moldova.
Ghimpu has always supported a different reunification – with Romania. Filat, however, was also considered to be an advocate of this course, though in response to Romanian President Traian Basescu’s statements made about integration, he said that Moldova was and will remain an independent state. Nevertheless, judging from Naryshkin’s meetings in Chisinau, Filat is not part of the Kremlin’s plans.
Meanwhile, not one of the current Moldovan authorities is part of the current Transdniestrian leadership’s plans: during a referendum, the region’s population confirmed its desire to pursue the policy of integration with Russia. However, the Supreme Council elections, which were held last Sunday, showed the alignment of political forces in the region could change. The majority of Transdniester’s new elected officials are not from the presidential forces. According to the head of the Transdniestrian party People’s Will, Oleg Gudymo, “most members of the Supreme Council could be considered ultra-rightwing” and are supported by big business.
Indeed, one of the deputies is Ilya Kazmaly, who is also one of the leaders of the Sheriff Corporation; and some deputies are members of a group known for “Initiative 16,” which suggested the limitation of presidential powers. It was “repelled” by Igor Smirnov’s supporters and cost Yevgeny Shevchuk his job as the speaker of parliament.
Shevchuk, who has announced his candidacy for president, entered into the current parliament and could be used by Chisinau during the upcoming 2011 presidential elections in Transdniester. According to Gudymo, Shevchuk “talks about Russia, but is inclined toward the West, just as the leading Moldovan politicians.”
