The referendum outcome is being closely watched in Romania and Russia
BRUSSELS - Moldovan citizens will go to the polls on Sunday (5 September) to decide whether they are in favour of the election of their president by popular vote.
The head of this former Soviet republic of 3.5 million, wedged between Romania and Ukraine, is currently elected by the parliament, a procedure which usually involves a long series of backstage negotiations between the parties represented in the legislature.
Moldova's interim president is the speaker of the parliament, Mihai Ghimpu. He took over as caretaker head of state exactly one year ago, after the resignation of his Communist predecessor Vladimir Voronin. Since then, the country has been ruled by an alliance of four pro-Western parties, called the Alliance for European Integration (AEI).
The AEI is banking on a positive outcome to the referendum, while Mr Voronin's Communist opposition would like to maintain the status quo and continue to have elected lawmakers choose the president.
If the people decide to change the system the present parliament would be dissolved as well.
In order to have the president elected directly by the population, article 78 of the Moldovan Constitution would have to be modified. In an effort to block this, the Communists filed a complaint with the Venice Commission, the Council of Europe's advisory body on constitutional law. The Commission refused to take sides in the dispute.
Not finding direct support from this source, the Communists have announced they will boycott the referendum, in a bid to have it annulled on low turnout grounds. The announcement triggered an amused response from interim president Mr Ghimpu, who remarked he would then, by law, retain his current function as head of state.
But even if the referendum results in a Yes, the situation would not be easy, also for the AEI. Presidential elections would take place in November, and the Alliance would have to present a joint candidate. This person has yet to be found. The main rivals inside the Alliance are Prime Minister Vlad Filat, chief of the Liberal Democrat Party, and Marian Lupu, leader of the Democratic Party, a politician known for his shifting positions and ambiguous attitude toward Moscow.
Eager to have a pro-Russian president in Chisinau, the Kremlin is silently encouraging the formation of a coalition between Marian Lupu's Democratic Party, which would have to leave the AEI, and Vladimir Voronin's Communists.
Meanwhile, Mr Ghimpu continued to distance himself from Moscow by signing a decree last week condemning the infamous 1939 Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, which made the occupation of Moldova by the USSR in 1940 possible. Until then, Moldova had been part of Romania, with both countries sharing the same language and history.
Neighbouring Romania is following events in Moldova closely. Last month, Romania's president Traian Basescu met both Mr Ghimpu and Prime Minister Filat. Romania's interest in all things Moldovan is the explanation given by most political commentators for the expulsion by Russia, last month, of a Romanian diplomat based in Moscow, whom the Kremlin accused of spying.
Russia is keen on keeping Moldova under its influence. Russian troops are based in Transdniestria - a strip of land on the eastern border. Populated mostly by Russian speakers, it broke away from Moldova in 1990, following a short but destructive war. Until now, Russia has resisted the temptation to recognise Transdniestria's independence as it did with the Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, preferring to keep this option as a trump card to be played when convenient.
The head of this former Soviet republic of 3.5 million, wedged between Romania and Ukraine, is currently elected by the parliament, a procedure which usually involves a long series of backstage negotiations between the parties represented in the legislature.
Moldova's interim president is the speaker of the parliament, Mihai Ghimpu. He took over as caretaker head of state exactly one year ago, after the resignation of his Communist predecessor Vladimir Voronin. Since then, the country has been ruled by an alliance of four pro-Western parties, called the Alliance for European Integration (AEI).
The AEI is banking on a positive outcome to the referendum, while Mr Voronin's Communist opposition would like to maintain the status quo and continue to have elected lawmakers choose the president.
If the people decide to change the system the present parliament would be dissolved as well.
In order to have the president elected directly by the population, article 78 of the Moldovan Constitution would have to be modified. In an effort to block this, the Communists filed a complaint with the Venice Commission, the Council of Europe's advisory body on constitutional law. The Commission refused to take sides in the dispute.
Not finding direct support from this source, the Communists have announced they will boycott the referendum, in a bid to have it annulled on low turnout grounds. The announcement triggered an amused response from interim president Mr Ghimpu, who remarked he would then, by law, retain his current function as head of state.
But even if the referendum results in a Yes, the situation would not be easy, also for the AEI. Presidential elections would take place in November, and the Alliance would have to present a joint candidate. This person has yet to be found. The main rivals inside the Alliance are Prime Minister Vlad Filat, chief of the Liberal Democrat Party, and Marian Lupu, leader of the Democratic Party, a politician known for his shifting positions and ambiguous attitude toward Moscow.
Eager to have a pro-Russian president in Chisinau, the Kremlin is silently encouraging the formation of a coalition between Marian Lupu's Democratic Party, which would have to leave the AEI, and Vladimir Voronin's Communists.
Meanwhile, Mr Ghimpu continued to distance himself from Moscow by signing a decree last week condemning the infamous 1939 Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, which made the occupation of Moldova by the USSR in 1940 possible. Until then, Moldova had been part of Romania, with both countries sharing the same language and history.
Neighbouring Romania is following events in Moldova closely. Last month, Romania's president Traian Basescu met both Mr Ghimpu and Prime Minister Filat. Romania's interest in all things Moldovan is the explanation given by most political commentators for the expulsion by Russia, last month, of a Romanian diplomat based in Moscow, whom the Kremlin accused of spying.
Russia is keen on keeping Moldova under its influence. Russian troops are based in Transdniestria - a strip of land on the eastern border. Populated mostly by Russian speakers, it broke away from Moldova in 1990, following a short but destructive war. Until now, Russia has resisted the temptation to recognise Transdniestria's independence as it did with the Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, preferring to keep this option as a trump card to be played when convenient.
