By Alexander Tanas
CHISINAU, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Moldova holds its third parliamentary election in little more than a year and a half on Sunday, which could decide whether the ex-Soviet republic sticks to a pro-Europe course or opts for closer ties with Russia.
Its four million election-weary people will be trying yet again to break a stalemate that has left it without a full-time president since mid-2009.
The election, in a country where former Soviet master Russia and European Union neighbour Romania vie for influence, will be a test of how well a four-party ruling coalition has sold a pro-Europe message since taking power 15 months ago.
The Alliance for European Integration has sought to move Moldova, one of Europe's poorest states with an average monthly salary of $230, closer to mainstream European institutions.
It is trying to make itself eligible for EU membership one day by improving crumbling infrastructure and government services through funding and aid projects from abroad."The only true chance for Moldova is to continue with the reforms that have begun and which are supported by its external partners - the EU, the United States, the IMF and the World Bank," Prime Minister Vlad Filat told Reuters. "Our main aim is not to allow the return of Moldova to the past," he said.
While Romania and other EU states hope the coalition will remain in power, Russia may be counting on the emergence of a left-centrist coalition, including the communists, to end a gradual slide in relations since the Alliance came to power.
Though Moldova relies exclusively on Russia for its gas, it fell foul of Moscow when acting president Mihai Ghimpu fixed a "Day of Soviet Occupation" in the political calendar.
Russia responded with restrictions on imports of Moldovan food, including wines which are Moldova's main export earner.
PAST VIOLENCE
Opinion polls show that the popularity of the opposition communists, the biggest single party, is declining while the ratings of two coalition parties -- Filat's and that of former presidential candidate Marian Lupu -- are on the rise.
When the communists declared victory in an election in April 2009, there were violent protests by young people in Chisinau who ransacked the president's office and parliament. The communists lost to the coalition in a snap election in July that year.
But while support for the coalition parties is strong in the cities, a deep nostalgia for Soviet times works to the advantage of the communists in rural areas.
The unreliablity of opinion polls in Moldova makes Sunday's election difficult to call.
Last September, surveys showed the Alliance would easily win a referendum for direct elections for president -- but the poll collapsed because of a low voter turnout.
The communists, led by former President Vladimir Voronin who had called for a boycott of the referendum, hailed the outcome as a sign that public sentiment is moving back in their favour. Many commentators say Sunday's poll is unlikely to change the balance of the parties and say neither side will get enough seats to break the impasse.
The Alliance at present holds 53 seats to the communists' 48 -- and was twice unable to win over enough defectors to get the required 61 votes in parliament to vote Lupu in as president.
"The future parliament will look a lot like today's and so these elections are not likely to take Moldova out of crisis. In general the balance between the Communist party and other parties will remain," analyst Bogdan Tirdea told Reuters.
Other commentators, however, see a strong possibility the communists could form a left-centre coalition with Lupu should he decide to quit the Alliance.
Of all the coalition's key figures, Lupu has the closest ties with Russia.
Breaking the stalemate is vital for a small country in dire need of reform. Its roads are among the worst in Europe, many people in rural areas have no water or sewage facilities, and rampant corruption and heavy bureaucracy deter investment.
Its economy relies heavily on remittances from the estimated 400,000 Moldovans who work abroad, and this income fluctuates according to the external economic environment.
The new government will also have to try to negotiate a settlement in Transdniestria, a strip of separatist-ruled Moldovan territory on its eastern border with Ukraine which declared its independence 20 years ago. The problem has defied international settlement despite efforts by the OSCE, Russia, the EU and the United States. (Writing by Richard Balmforth, editing by Tim Pearce)
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